STABILITY, FIVE DAYS OUT – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  Searching all the polls and late political reports this morning, the word "stability" stands out.

This election seems to have been cast, if not in stone, at least in strong plaster of Paris.  There are really no major changes in the polls.  Virtually all prognosticators are predicting a major Republican victory in the House and the retirement of Nancy Pelosi from the speakership.  While a few brave souls, like Dick Morris, are still predicting a GOP takeover of the Senate, most analysts are flashing a yellow light.  Close, but no takeover.

Larry Sabato, of the University of Virginia, is out this morning with his final predictions.  He predicts a gain of 55 seats for the Republicans in the House.  As to the Senate:

We have never gotten to +10, the number needed for Republican takeover of the Senate, and we do not do so in this final forecast either. To us, the number of GOP gains looks to be +8. Ten was always a stretch.

However, Sabato gives us this fascinating tidbit:

In our pre-Labor Day analysis, however, we noted a historical anomaly: Since World War II, the House has changed parties six times, and in every case, the Senate switched, too. In five of the six cases, most prognosticators did not see the Senate turnover coming. (Only in 2006 did some guess correctly, including the Crystal Ball.) So if we have a big surprise on election night, this could be it, despite the pre-election odds against it.

And The Weekly Standard's Jeffrey H. Anderson expands on the notion:

A close look at the Senate polls suggests that they are likely understating the probability of Republican victories. Most seem to be under-sampling either Republicans, independents, or both. As a result, in 10 of 12 key Senate races, the Republican candidate’s likelihood of winning appears to be greater than what the polls are registering.

Nothing much to add at this hour.  In six days we'll be reviewing the results.

October 28, 2010